Last week, we showed you Paul Allen’s work on trying to determine how many users were on Google+. At the time, he was estimating around 1.7 million users. Now he is estimating there are over 10 million users on the site, and that number could grow to 20 million by the weekend if the Google+ invites remain open. Wow!
As before, the math is certainly inexact but has some sound logic behind it.
My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven’t updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time.
You can read his full write-up here. Do you agree with his logic? Can we really already be at 10 million users?