It can be hard to separate the two, particularly when it’s something big that happens to us personally, but anecdotes are not the same as real evidence.
We seem to be in the midst of that right now with COVID vaccines, but it’s hard to see while we’re still in the middle of it. Going back 40 years to when seatbelt laws were being introduced is likely the best comparison we have.
There are known cases where a driver died because they were wearing a seatbelt, often in the case where the car was on fire or submerged in water. In many of those cases the seatbelt still helped (less chance of being knocked unconscious), but sadly, some have died specifically because they were wearing their seatbelt. On the flip side, wearing seatbelts is estimated to save roughly 15,000 lives per year (NHTSA) and is clearly the wise thing to do. If you lost someone you love because they were wearing their seatbelt, your anecdote is incredibly tragic and compelling, but it still isn’t evidence.
Seth Godin recently wrote a short post unpacking this and ended with a simple statement:
An anecdote is not evidence. But we often treat it that way.
I encourage you not to.
